Democratic Taiwan is older than Communist China, according to President Lai Ching-te. Speaking at a gala ahead of Taiwan’s National Day, Lai stated that it is incorrect for Beijing to refer to itself as the motherland. He emphasized that in terms of age, the People’s Republic of China cannot be considered the motherland of the Republic of China’s people. Instead, he suggested that it may be more appropriate for the Republic of China to be considered the motherland for those over 75 years old in mainland China.
Taiwan’s National Day commemorates the Wuchang Uprising in 1911, which led to the overthrow of Qing Dynasty emperor and marked the establishment of the Republic of China (ROC). Following a civil war with Chinese Communist Party (CCP), ROC government retreated to Taiwan in 1949.
China claims sovereignty over Taiwan and labels anyone who defends its independence as “separatist.” Lai stressed that one important aspect of these celebrations is recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign and independent country. He called on Taiwanese citizens to unite in safeguarding their nation’s sovereignty, democracy, freedom, and human rights.
President Lai will deliver his own keynote address on National Day. In early September, he had suggested that if China’s claims on Taiwan were about territorial integrity, Beijing should also request Moscow return land signed over by Qing Dynasty in 1858.
China has been engaging in “gray zone” operations near Taiwan through military exercises and naval development activities. Recently, over 20 Chinese military planes were spotted near Taiwan by its defense ministry. CIA Director William Burns had previously stated that CCP leader Xi Jinping instructed China’s military to be ready for a successful invasion by 2027.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has published reports exploring scenarios where China could impose a quarantine or blockade against Taiwan. In a quarantine scenario, Chinese Coast Guard vessels would enforce customs rules around Taiwan while controlling marine traffic around the island. This would economically punish and undermine Taiwanese sovereignty.
In a blockade scenario, all or most imports including oil and natural gas would be stopped by China. Given Taiwan’s heavy dependence on imports for food and energy supplies with nearly 24 million people living there; this could lead to progressive failures in electric power distribution across the island.
The ultimate goal is breaking down resistance among Taiwanese people leading Taipei’s capitulation; even seizing offshore islands like Kinmen or Matsu would still count as victory for Beijing.