Mozambicans are heading to the polls on Wednesday for elections that are expected to result in an easy victory for the ruling Frelimo party. However, a surprising outsider candidate is making waves in the presidential race and gaining support from young voters in a country where the median age is just 17.
Frelimo has been in power since Portuguese colonial rule ended in 1975. This is the first time they have put forward a presidential candidate who was born after independence. Daniel Chapo, a provincial governor who was relatively unknown until May when he was chosen as Frelimo’s candidate, is set to succeed outgoing president Filipe Nyusi.
Renamo, Frelimo’s traditional political rival and opponent during the civil war from 1977 to 1992, has been losing ground. Venâncio Mondlane, who left Renamo in June and is now running as an independent candidate, has managed to win over young voters.
Despite these challenges, analysts do not expect Frelimo to give up its hold on power. The party has made it difficult for its opponents by imposing strict campaigning regulations and voter registration processes.
Borges Nhamirre, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, believes that authoritarian regimes like Frelimo find elections easy because they can manipulate results regardless of voters’ preferences.
Mondlane’s charismatic speeches at late-night rallies have attracted passionate crowds across Mozambique. He has also encouraged other candidates to use social media more effectively and pledge to renegotiate contracts in natural gas and mining sectors.
Anne Pitcher, a politics professor at the University of Michigan, warns that rigging may have already taken place before the election through limited voter registration opportunities favoring Frelimo strongholds.
Mozambique ranks as one of the world’s poorest countries with a GDP per capita of just $608 according to World Bank data. While it possesses valuable natural resources such as coal and rubies, efforts to exploit vast natural gas reserves have been hindered by an insurgency linked with Islamic State militants in Cabo Delgado province.
The country’s economy suffered greatly when it was revealed in 2016 that $2 billion had been misappropriated through corrupt “tuna bond” loans meant for funding fishing fleets and maritime security measures. As a result of this scandalous revelation international financiers withdrew their support causing further economic setbacks.
Similar to other African nations experiencing population booms, educated urban youth are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with Mozambique’s current state of affairs. However due to an uneven playing field analysts predict another landslide victory for Nyusi similar to his win with 73% of votes compared Momade’s mere 22% during last year’s presidential election
The Public Integrity Center reported almost 879 thousand fake voters out of Mozambique’s total registered voting population which stands at around seventeen million people; furthermore claiming that one-third were ghost voters concentrated mainly within Gaza province -a southern region known as stronghold territory for FRELIMO-
While Mondlane’s candidacy has generated excitement among many young Mozambicans it has also caused divisions within opposition parties according Dércio Alfazema; an independent political analyst who believes dissatisfaction among citizens will not be enough remove FRELIMO from power