Public policies proposed by Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump would add trillions of dollars to the national debt, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).
The budget watchdog analyzed the fiscal impacts behind the presidential candidates’ proposals, relying on a blend of campaign and candidate statements, previous budget outlooks, social media posts, and other wide-ranging reports.
Under a central estimate, Harris’s policies could raise the national debt by $3.5 trillion over the next decade, including $500 billion in interest charges.
Harris’s two top policy proposals are extending the Tax Cuts and jobs Act (TCJA) for households earning less than $400,000 and expanding the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit. Both are projected to reduce revenues by $3 trillion and $1.4 trillion respectively.
Harris has suggested offsetting the projected revenue decline by raising the corporate tax rate from 21 percent to 28 percent and increasing taxes on capital income. These could generate tax receipts of $900 billion and $850 billion respectively over 10 years.
By comparison, Trump’s plans could increase the debt by $7.5 trillion including $1 trillion in interest costs through fiscal year 2035.
Trump has three policies that could have a $1 trillion-plus impact on revenues. These include extension and modification of Trump-era tax cuts ($5.35 trillion), exemption of overtime income from taxes ($2 trillion), elimination of taxes on Social Security benefits ($1.3 trillion).
The ex-president also proposed establishing universal across-the-board tariffs that could bring in an estimated $2.7 trillion. In addition, he recommended reversing current energy and environmental policies and expanding oil and gas production which could boost revenues by $700 billion.
Fiscal effects also vary based on low-estimate projections where Harris’s initiatives would not add to national debt but high-cost estimates suggest her efforts would boost it by up to$8.1trillion.
A low-cost projection for Trump’s proposals would increase debt by$1 .45trillion while high-cost estimate totals$15 .15trillion.
The CRFB analysis stated that there is “high degree uncertainty” regarding estimates based on absence vital details candidates’ platforms.
While impact differs between both campaigns,”neither major candidate running in2024 presidential election has put forward plan address this rising debt burden,”the watchdog group noted.
Without substantial fiscal changes,”debt will continue swallow greater share economy next decade.”
“Debt would continue grow faster than economy under either candidate’s plan most scenarios grow faster higher than under current law,”the CRFB said.
National Debt presently stands at nearly$35 .7trillion up roughly$8trillion since January2021 according Treasury Department data.
In an Oct letter CRFB board members urged Harris &Trump address ballooning national debt.”Unfortunately high rising carries significant repercussions all Americans including slower economic growth higher interest rates they wrote.”Rising limits ability respond unexpected emergencies like natural disasters pandemics it is national security threat as well.”
As nation heads toward November election,budget forecasts have crunched dollars cents how much presidential contenders will contribute ballooning deficit
This past summer University Pennsylvania Penn Wharton Budget Model projected that Harris campaign’s policy proposals expand primary deficits between$12trillion&$2trillion over next decade
Trump campaign’s policy proposals estimated raise primary deficits between$41and58over next10years
White House hopefuls’proposals also have different effects broader economy
Although Harris said during live stream event with Oprah Winfrey Penn Wharton estimates show she stimulate economy group forecasts her policies trim GDPby13percentby2034
“We estimate that Harris campaign proposals reduce GDP overtime Kent Smetters Boettner Chair Professor at University Pennsylvania Wharton School recently told Epoch Times”
Penn Wharton anticipates”GDP increases during part first decade””GDP eventually falls relative current law falling0 .4percentin20342 .lpercentin30years”
In September The Tax Foundation compared economic fiscal effects Harris &Trump campaigns Analysts projected deficit grow12.trilllonunder Trump presidency over next decade Long-run GDP expected tumble02percentwhile long-run wages predicted grow06percent Full-time employment jobs plunge387000 The net effectofHarrispolicieswouldincreasedeficitsbyS15tninthessamespanLongrunGDPandwagesareforecasttofall2%and12%respectivelyFull-timeemploymentjobscouldcrater786000 In June Congressional Budget Office updated10-yearwindowtobudgeteconomicoutlook nonpartisanbudgetwatchdoghighlightedthatcumulativedeficitstotal22tnbringingnationaldebtabove50tnby2034