Former Australian Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd argues in his new book, “On Xi Jinping,” that the world should wait for Xi’s leadership to end, at which point China will return to a more centrist path. The current ambassador to the United States supports this view, suggesting that Xi’s strict adherence to Marxist ideology is taking a toll on the economy. According to Rudd, Xi’s objective is to change the international order itself and establish China as its emerging geopolitical and geo-economic fulcrum. He claims that Xi has shifted Beijing’s politics towards the “Leninist left” by consolidating his power and prioritizing state planning over market forces. Additionally, he has moved foreign policy towards the “nationalist right” by promoting grievances against Western occupation and emphasizing Chinese civilization.
Rudd believes that tensions over Taiwan are likely at their peak during Xi’s leadership but will settle once he is replaced. He suggests that unless Xi can hold on for another two decades or more, China is less likely to become more ideologically extreme after his departure.
However, a Chinese dissident in Australia dismisses Rudd’s prediction of Beijing’s renaissance after Xi as unrealistic and ignorant of China’s history. Federation for a Democratic China Australian President Chin Jin argues that Western figures like Rudd fail to see the forest for focusing only on individual leaders like Xi Jinping. Chin asserts that global domination has always been the fundamental goal of the authoritarian CCP regime since its founding in 1949.
Chin points out historical events such as Deng Xiaoping introducing a strategy of hiding strength and biding time while pursuing economic development without political reforms. He also highlights Jiang Zemin launching persecution campaigns against Falun Gong practitioners before Xi came into power.
While acknowledging Xi Jinping’s influence in transforming China’s political power structure through personal dictatorship and absorbing control from party rule into family rule, Chin emphasizes that it is not just about one leader but about understanding the entire CCP regime.
Former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer supports Rudd’s view, describing his book as a good piece of work. Downer agrees with Rudd’s analysis of how different Xi Jinping is from his predecessors—more Marxist-Leninist with aggressive nationalist tendencies.
However, Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon disagrees with Rudd’s optimism about a less threatening China post-Xi. Bacon sees no evidence of any shift towards moderation or centrism in Chinese policies; instead, he believes they aim to take Taiwan by 2027.