According to a nationwide survey conducted by the Yomiuri Shimbun, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is expected to lose seats in the upcoming House of Representatives election. The focus will be on whether the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito can secure a majority of 89 seats in the 176-seat proportional representation race. On the opposition side, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) is projected to gain more seats, while the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) is struggling.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is also president of the LDP, made a speech asking for support from Komeito in the proportional representation race and for strength to lead the country in future years. In the previous lower house election, LDP won 72 proportional presentation seats but it is likely to be around 60 this time. There is fierce competition for some seats in Hokkaido, Tohoku, northern Kanto, Tokyo and Tokai regions which could result in fewer than 60 LDP seats.
The LDP has solidified less than 80% of its support base compared to other major parties that have secured about 80% to 90% of their supporters. Additionally, its support from voters not affiliated with any party has not reached 10%. The issue of politics and money seems to be affecting voter sentiment.
Komeito is expected to maintain about 20 seats which are essentially unchanged from their previous win. Therefore, it’s anticipated that combined LDP and Komeito seats will range between 70-90 compared to their previous total of 95.
Among opposition parties, CDPJ is likely to win somewhere between 40-49 proportional representation seats with strong backing from about 90% of its support base and approximately20% support from voters without party affiliation. Support for CDPJ among people in their sixties exceeds20%, while among those in their seventies it’s slightly under30%. Depending on circumstances they could aim for50-59seats.
In Hokkaido bloc where CDPJ has maintained strong support since its predecessor days as Democratic PartyofJapan,the partyis projectedto win three proportional representationseatswhichis closein numbertotheLDP’sprojection.
The JIP made significant gainsinthepreviouselectionwith25proportionalrepresentationseatsbutthis time they may end up with only10-19.Theirconsolidatedsupportfrom80%oftheir supportersislessthan10%supportfromvoterswithoutpartyaffiliationwhichislowerthanCDPJandL DP.IntheirstrongholdofKinkibloc,JIPexpectedtowineightproportionalrepresentationseatsdownfromtenlasttime.ThisreflectsthepartyslaggingpopularitymainlyduetopubliccriticismofthewhistleblowingscandalinvolvingformerHyogoGov.MotohikoSaitoendorsedin2021Hyogogubernatorialelection
The Japanese CommunistParty(JCP)lookslikelytowinabout10proportionalrepresentationseats,andtheDemocraticPartyforthePeopleexpectedtowinasingle-digitnumber.These twopartiesarelikelytosecureasimilarlevelofproportionalrepresentationseatsastheydidintheprevious election.TheReiwaShinsengumiaimingtodoubleitsseatsfromthethreeitwonlasttime.ThepoliticalgroupknownastheConservativePartyofJapanistargetingaboutfourproportionalrepresentationseat sincludingoneinTokai blocwhereitscoleaderTakashiKawamura,aformerNagoyamayorhasastronghold