A think tank has raised concerns about the AUKUS Pillar One nuclear-propelled submarine project, describing it as ”overly ambitious” and suggesting that it could weaken Australia’s ability to address non-armed conflict security threats like pandemics. The Australia Institute submitted its concerns to the Senate Committee responsible for reviewing the trilateral AUKUS treaty between Australia, the United States, and UK. The institute highlighted a lack of analysis and evidence supporting the AUKUS deal, which was announced in September 2021. While the agreement aims to strengthen defense arrangements between the three countries in various areas such as quantum technology and undersea drones, its centerpiece is arming the Royal Australian Navy with nuclear-powered submarines. This decision is intended to counter Beijing’s maritime aggression in the Indo-Pacific region.
The Australia Institute warned that the estimated cost of AUKUS, at $368 billion, lacks substantiation and could potentially be three times higher based on previous experiences. The think tank argued that this approach exceeds Australia’s defense needs, distorts national force structure, weakens overall posture, and comes with opportunity costs that impact long-term well-being. It also expressed doubts about whether all three nations have sufficient capabilities to produce these submarines.
The submission further emphasized that there has been insufficient domestic discussion regarding why a nuclear capability is necessary for Australia and how it can be achieved without complete dependence on allies. Additionally, concerns were raised about storing and disposing of nuclear materials used in submarine engines since there are no standard methods for high-level military nuclear waste management.
The submission urged Parliament to consider concerns among serving Australian Defense Force personnel regarding potential erosion of existing capabilities due to funding commitments under AUKUS. It recommended renegotiating the agreement to ensure adequate safeguards protecting national agency and decision-making.
Meanwhile, a report from Congressional Research Service proposed an alternative approach where U.S.-Australia military division of labor would allow U.S. submarines to operate out of Australia while investing funds in other military capabilities instead of purchasing their own submarines.
These issues highlight ongoing debates surrounding AUKUS as stakeholders assess its feasibility and potential implications for national security interests.