According to a survey conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun, the ruling parties are on track to secure a majority in the upcoming House of Representatives election. The survey, which combined reporting from Yomiuri bureaus across Japan, indicates that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, Komeito, will likely win at least half of the 465 seats in the lower house. However, the LDP is facing challenges due to backlash over a hidden funds scandal. On the other hand, opposition parties such as the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) could gain seats while the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) seems to be losing traction.
The LDP has fielded 266 candidates in single-seat constituencies. Around 100 of them are leading their rivals, while nearly 120 are engaged in tight races and over 40 have ground to make up. In comparison to the previous election’s proportional representation segment where they won 72 seats, it is expected that this time they will fall short of that figure. There is uncertainty whether they can secure a majority on their own with at least 233 seats.
Among former LDP lawmakers and party members who did not report funds in political fund reports running for single-seat constituencies, about half are trailing behind their rivals.
As for Komeito candidates running for single-seat constituencies, two out of eleven appear to be leading while others face tough competition. It remains unclear if Komeito can maintain its current number of seats in the lower house.
The CDPJ is projected to gain around 30 additional seats compared to its previous total of 98. Approximately thirty CDPJ candidates contesting single-seat constituencies are leading or have close races especially in Tohoku region and Tokyo metropolitan area among others. The party also looks likely to surpass its previous count of proportional representation seats.
On another note, only nine JIP candidates seem to be leading in single-seat constituencies outside Osaka and Kyoto regions where they lack momentum. It is uncertain if JIP can retain its pre-election strength with fewer than their previous count of proportional representation seats.
Other parties such as Japanese Communist Party (JCP), Democratic Party for People (DPP), Reiwa Shinsengumi (RS), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Sanseito and Conservative Party of Japan are also expected to win some seats.
The survey was conducted online and by telephone with voters across Japan on Tuesday and Wednesday with a total valid response from 263,027 respondents. However, there were some respondents who did not declare their intended vote or candidate preference which could still impact results.
A total number of candidates running for this election stands at 1,344 – including those competing both in single-seat constituencies as well as proportional representation ones.