As 18 Pacific nations, including Australia and New Zealand, gather in Tonga’s capital Nuku’alofa this week, the pressing issue of climate change on some of the world’s smallest nations takes center stage. According to a report from the Sydney-based Lowy Institute, climate resilience will increasingly be at the center of geopolitical partnerships.
For many low-lying islands in the region, rising sea levels and severe weather events pose an immediate threat to their territorial integrity, economic stability, and citizen safety. Data from the EM-DAT International Disaster Database shows a significant increase in cyclones since the 1970s.
Responding to climate emergencies has become a new front for larger powers vying for allegiance from Pacific states. These powers are jostling to be first responders to climate and humanitarian emergencies. However, recipients of assistance prefer greater local capacity-building and alignment with national emergency response systems.
The report highlights that ”climate change is the single biggest security concern in the region.” While these nations may have small land masses, their proximity to vital maritime routes is of great interest to larger nations seeking influence. Establishing alliances in this region allows global powers control over transport routes, telecommunications assets, critical infrastructure, fisheries, and seabed minerals.
Pacific Island nations have realized they can leverage competition between global powers by becoming “price setters” rather than accepting whatever is offered by traditional allies. Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong acknowledges that Canberra and its partners are locked in a state of permanent contest with Beijing over influence in the region.
Australia has opened six new diplomatic posts since 2017 while four have closed due to Beijing’s promises of substantial investment elsewhere. The Chinese Communist Party’s deal with Solomon Islands raised alarm among Western nations due to potential security implications for the entire Pacific region.
Australia remains as the largest provider of development assistance to the Pacific; however China’s presence remains highly visible and valued by Pacific leaders despite decreasing aid amounts. Pacific countries aim for a delicate balance between relying on aid from Australia and New Zealand while increasing trade with North Asian markets like China.
The focus at this week’s Pacific Islands Forum will be on decreasing dependence on foreign powers while managing competing demands from Beijing and Washington DC—all while ensuring these nations remain above water both literally and figuratively.