The outcome of the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) presidential election next month is expected to heavily rely on the votes of rank-and-file party members and affiliated groups. These votes tend to reflect public opinion, making them crucial in determining the next LDP president. In a recent survey conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun, former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi emerged as the top choices for the position.
According to the survey results, Ishiba received 22% of respondents’ support, making him the most suitable candidate in their eyes. In response to these findings, Ishiba acknowledged that his advocacy for reform across various fields has garnered him significant support. However, he expressed caution about Koizumi’s growing momentum and emphasized that Koizumi has yet to announce his candidacy.
Koizumi secured second place in the survey with 20% support, a 5 percentage point increase from previous polls. Despite only having served as environment minister so far, Koizumi’s high profile has generated great expectations among voters even before officially declaring his candidacy.
Economic security minister Sanae Takaichi demonstrated her presence by coming in third with 10% support. Her participation in the previous presidential election in 2021 contributed to her increased recognition nationwide. On the other hand, digital minister Taro Kono secured fourth place among candidates with extensive experience in key positions.
As it stands now, seven individuals are likely to run for office when considering those who have already announced their candidacies and lawmakers believed to have secured nominations from 20 LDP lawmakers. The first round of voting will see nominators vote for their endorsed candidates; however, if there are numerous contenders, securing a significant lead solely through Diet members’ votes will prove challenging.
Therefore, winning over rank-and-file party members and affiliated groups becomes crucial since their votes carry equal weight as those of Diet members (367 votes). Recognizing this importance, experienced LDP member supporters stress the need for candidates to appeal directly to these groups.
Past presidential elections have shown that opinion polls indicating public preference serve as leading indicators of how rank-and-file party members and affiliated groups will vote. However, it is worth noting that runoff elections often occur where Diet members’ votes hold more weight than in initial rounds.
Considering an upcoming House of Representatives election scheduled for October next year adds another layer of complexity. Lawmakers may be hesitant about voting against popular choices among rank-and-file party members when keeping this future election in mind.
With potential campaign periods starting on October 15 or later dates like October 22 or October 29 being considered for a general election soon after dissolution of lower house membership within LDP ranks is called upon by many within its ranks while momentum remains strong under new leadership.