The recent violation of Japan’s airspace by a Chinese military aircraft has brought attention to the escalating tension in the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait. China’s stated willingness to invade Taiwan has led some to believe that this incursion was intended as a test of Japan’s vigilance and surveillance capabilities. In response, Japan plans to collaborate with the United States and other nations to counter any unilateral attempts to change the status quo through force.
A senior Defense Ministry official commented on the incident, stating that it was the first time a Chinese military aircraft had violated Japanese airspace. The official emphasized that they are currently analyzing China’s intentions but did not provide further details. The Chinese aircraft breached Japan’s airspace near Nagasaki Prefecture, where Air Self-Defense Force surveillance control radar is deployed on Shimokoshiki Island. This suggests that one possible motive for the incursion was to gather intelligence on Japan’s defense capabilities.
Reports indicate that a Chinese military vessel was also present nearby during this incident, potentially observing reactions from Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force. It is widely believed that China aims to build up its capacity for invading Taiwan by 2027 and considers containing US military involvement in such an invasion as its top priority. To achieve this goal, China has adopted an Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) strategy aimed at preventing intervention from countries like Japan and the United States.
The violation of Japanese airspace may have been intended as an assessment of Japan’s vigilance, surveillance capabilities, and responses in order to enhance China’s A2/AD capabilities.
China has been exerting increasing military pressure on Taiwan in recent years. For instance, when former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022, China conducted military drills surrounding Taiwan while firing ballistic missiles into waters within Japan’s exclusive economic zone. Additionally, large-scale joint operations involving various branches of its armed forces were carried out by China around Taiwan following an inauguration speech by Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te earlier this year.
China has also intensified its activities around Japan itself. It established an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) unilaterally above the East China Sea and deployed multiple warships near its borders throughout January according to reports from The Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper.
In July alone, there were 85 instances where ASDF scrambled jets against foreign aircraft potentially violating Japanese airspace; 80% of these scrambles were against Chinese planes according to data from the Defense Ministry.
In response to this latest incident, Japan summoned China’s acting ambassador immediately after confirming the violation by their military aircraft and lodged a serious protest against it. The Japanese government intends strongly demonstrate their position against any attempts by China at changing current circumstances while cooperating with likeminded countries including United States towards strengthening deterrence measures along with response capabilities vis-a-vis Beijing.
With concerns about potential contingencies involving Taiwan in mind Tokyo is accelerating efforts towards shifting focus southwestwardly through establishing camps across Yonaguni Miyako Amami-Oshima Ishigaki islands deploying units operating surface-to-ship ground-to-air missiles among others
Kyushu University Professor Chisako Masuo who specializes in studying marine policy related matters pertaining specifically towards Beijing noted how “As per claims made by Beijing large sections off Danjo Islands fall under jurisdictional purview which might be demonstrated via actions” adding “China appears concerned over Tokyo bolstering defenses across Nansei Islands hence could be trying weaken Nippon extending ‘battlefront’ northwards”.