The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been studying military aggression and strategies for dealing with foreign leaders by observing the Ukraine War, according to testimony given to an Australian Senate Committee. Retired Major General Mick Ryan of the Australian Army stated on August 5th that “The Chinese are very good at learning from other people’s wars.” He explained that they have closely observed conflicts such as the Falklands War, the 1991 Gulf War, the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan. These wars have served as a testing ground for weapons, ideas, and policies for China. Major General Ryan also warned that China has learned from Ukraine that this type of aggression can be successful.
He further emphasized that China believes Russia has been successful in preventing Western escalation through nuclear deterrence. The CCP sees this as a lesson to apply in their own actions regarding Taiwan. They have also learned how brutally they can treat citizens of an invaded country without facing consequences from the international community.
Major General Ryan expressed concern about a potential conflict within the next decade, estimating a 10 to 20 percent chance. He described this prospect as “terrifying” and significantly worse than what is currently happening in Ukraine.
When asked about Australia’s support for Ukraine, Major General Ryan highlighted the rise of what he called a new “axis” consisting of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. These countries share a belief in Western decline and take inspiration from each other’s successes.
Regarding Australia’s aid to Ukraine, Major General Ryan believed it was insufficient for defeating Russian forces there. He noted that Australia only dedicates a small percentage of its GDP towards supporting Ukraine—approximately $500 million per year—which amounts to less than one percent of its annual defense budget or less than half a week’s spending on defense.
Major General Mick Ryan stressed both strategic and moral imperatives for increased support to Ukraine due to ongoing conflict in the region.