The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been conducting live ammunition drills and armed patrols in west Yunnan Province near the China-Burma border as the civil war in Burma escalates. The PLA’s Southern Theater Command is currently engaged in a three-day joint exercise that began on August 27, according to an official statement posted on its WeChat account. Additionally, since August 26, the same command has been carrying out border armed patrols and joint-air ground police patrols in Yunnan’s Ruili and Zhenkang counties.
The civil war in Burma has intensified this year despite Beijing’s efforts to exert influence over both the Burmese military junta and rebel groups. In January, a shell fired from Burma injured five Chinese citizens in Nanshan, a border town in Yunnan Province. Although Beijing mediated a cease-fire agreement between the Burmese military junta and three local ethnic armed groups later that month, fighting between the Burmese military and the Arakan Army reignited in Rakhine State in April.
In June, with support from local armed forces, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army of the Three Brothers Alliance renewed its attacks on junta strongholds along China’s northeastern Shan State border. As a result of these developments, the cease-fire agreement collapsed completely, leading to an intensification of the civil war since July.
While Burmese army general Min Aung Hlaing accused unnamed foreign forces of providing assistance to rebel groups—including weapons and technology—China denied any involvement during Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Burma on August 14.
According to Sun Kuo-hsiang, an international affairs professor at Taiwan’s Nanhua University, it is unlikely that Beijing will send troops into Burma due to concerns about attracting international attention and being dragged into larger regional conflicts. Instead, China is more likely to influence events by providing intelligence support or secret military assistance while playing a stabilizing role for its own geopolitical interests.
China is currently Burma’s largest investor with significant economic interests at stake through projects like the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. Chung Chih-tung from Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research believes that China’s recent military activities near the border serve as both training opportunities for troops and demonstrations of their willingness to intervene militarily if necessary.
Sun also noted that while maintaining contact with ethnic rebel groups like Kokang and Ta’ang in northern Burma demonstrates Beijing’s dominance there; it also maintains long-term cooperation with Myanmar’s military government. The international community has taken some measures against CCP influence but faces limitations due to impediments imposed by Beijing. Russia also supports Myanmar’s junta regime.
In conclusion: The PLA continues its drills near China-Burma borders amidst escalating conflict within Myanmar; however sending troops remains unlikely for now as diplomatic efforts are prioritized by Beijing instead.