Democratic National Committee-backed lawsuits have been targeting independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., aiming to prevent him from appearing on multiple state ballots. However, the party’s strategy took a sudden turn on August 23 when Kennedy announced that he would suspend his campaign in battleground states and encourage his supporters to vote for former President Donald Trump in those states. Kennedy explained that remaining on the ballot in swing states would likely hand the election over to the Democrats, with whom he disagrees on crucial issues.
Since then, legal action supported by Democrats has been filed in swing states where Kennedy has sought to withdraw his name from the ballot. The objective is to keep him on the ballot because reports suggest that Kennedy would take more votes away from Trump than Vice President Kamala Harris.
On September 6, a Michigan appeals court ruled in favor of removing Kennedy’s name from the general election ballot, overturning a previous ruling that allowed him to remain after withdrawing from the race. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, had initially stated that state law does not permit minor party candidates nominated at a state convention to withdraw.
In North Carolina, a Court of Appeals panel unanimously approved Kennedy’s request to halt the mailing of absentee ballots and reprint them without his name. North Carolina is crucial for Harris as she aims to become the first Democratic presidential candidate since 2008 to win there.
Kennedy has made efforts throughout this year to secure ballot access as an independent candidate in all 50 states and Washington D.C., establishing his We The People political party selectively. However, Wisconsin is currently rejecting his withdrawal effort after its Elections Commission voted 5-1 against removing his name from their ballot.
Speculation is growing regarding how Kennedy’s presence on battleground state ballots will impact the election outcome. According to FiveThirtyEight’s average of polls conducted until September 6th, Harris leads Trump with 47.3 percent compared to 44.2 percent support.
A Pew Research study conducted earlier this year indicated that many of Kennedy’s supporters were less motivated than both Trump and Harris supporters when it came time for voting in presidential elections.
Kennedy himself revealed internal polling data showing that if he left the race in swing states, approximately 57 percent of his backers would shift their support towards Trump instead of Harris or other candidates.
Republican strategist Wes Farno believes that even if only a small number of Kennedy supporters vote for Trump instead, it could have significant implications in tightly contested swing states where every vote matters.
While some analysts argue that Kennedy’s exit from the race and endorsement of Trump will have minimal impact by Election Day itself, others believe it could potentially sway undecided voters or those who initially supported him towards supporting Trump instead.
Kennedy announced his candidacy back in April 2023 with intentions to challenge Biden for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination but faced numerous obstacles along with accusations by DNC officials claiming he was aiding Trump’s campaign indirectly as an independent candidate rather than running within their party structure.