Former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and former Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan leader Yukio Edano are leading the party’s leadership election, according to a survey conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun. The survey, which included 136 CDPJ Diet members, showed that Noda has slightly less than 30% support from the members, followed by Edano at 60 years old. However, some observers believe that Edano may have an advantage in the election as local assembly members and other party members will also cast their votes. The race between the two candidates is expected to be close.
Current party leader Kenta Izumi and House of Representatives member Harumi Yoshida do not have much support among the Diet members. The leadership election is contested on 740 points, with votes from Diet members accounting for about one-third of the total points. It is possible that a runoff will be held between the top two candidates since none of them are likely to secure a majority in the first round of voting.
The survey asked CDPJ Diet members about their preferred candidate and each person’s vote counted for two points. As of Friday, Noda was leading with support from 35 lawmakers (70 points), followed by Edano with support from 24 lawmakers (48 points). Izumi had support from 17 Diet members (34 points), while Yoshida secured support from only 15 members (30 points). Both Izumi and Yoshida failed to gather enough supporters to become candidates.
About 30% of CDPJ Diet members were undecided, which could significantly impact the outcome of the race. Supporters of Noda cited his ability to win public trust and his leadership skills as reasons for their preference. On the other hand, supporters of Edano mentioned his highly-rated policies as their main reason for supporting him.
In an opinion poll conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun in August, Noda received favorable responses from respondents who believed he would be best suited to lead CDPJ. Expectations for Noda’s leadership within the party seem high. Meanwhile, Edano is favored by local assembly members.
Apart from voting points allocated to Diet members, all expected CDPJ candidates running in either house will receive one point each in the election. Local assembly members and party/supporting members will also be allotted a certain number of voting points based on their numbers.
Noda has secured support from various intra-party groups but still faces criticism over his decision during his time as prime minister when he dissolved the lower house and called for a general election that led to his party losing power.
Edano has gained significant backing from Sanctuary – one of CDPJ’s largest intra-party groups – but faced defeat during his tenure as party leader in last year’s lower house election. Some criticize him for becoming vague in his assertions lately regarding policies such as “zero nuclear power.”
Izumi struggles to solidify support within his group despite having around 25 group members while Yoshida lacks substantial backing due to concerns about her political experience.
The survey also revealed instances where group member supported candidates whose views did not align with their own group’s stance since unlike LDP factions; CDPJ allows its member belong multiple groups simultaneously.
