The Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election is expected to go into a runoff, as three candidates remain in a close race. Former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba, economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi are all vying for the top spot. A survey conducted by The Yomiuri Shimbun among LDP Diet members revealed that none of the candidates have secured a majority of votes, making it highly likely that there will be a runoff between the top two contenders. The survey included 368 LDP Diet members and confirmed the voting intentions of 361 members. Koizumi currently has the support of 54 lawmakers, followed by former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi with 49 supporters. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi received backing from 39 lawmakers.
The remaining candidates include Toshimitsu Motegi with 35 votes, Takaichi with 31 votes, Ishiba with 28 votes, Taro Kono with 25 votes, Yoko Kamikawa with 23 votes, and Katsunobu Kato with 21 backers. Seventy lawmakers remained undecided or did not provide an answer.
Based on a phone survey conducted by The Yomiuri Shimbun on September 14th and15th among party members and affiliated groups’ members, Ishiba is expected to receive126 votes while Takaichi is projected to receive125votes and Koizumi114votes.
A total of736votes will be cast in the election – half from LDP lawmakers and half from rank-and-file party members and affiliated groups nationwide. If no candidate receives a majority in the first round of voting,a runoff vote will be held.
Given that none of the frontrunners are likely to secure more than20%ofthe first-round vote,a runoff is highly anticipated.Even if all103undecided or no answer voters sidedwith one candidate,the majority threshold would still not be reached.The three leading candidates are striving to expand their support base,believing that securing around140votes would guarantee them a spot in therunoff.
As voting for rank-and-file party membersandaffiliated groupscloses on Thursday,the campaigns plan to focus on garnering more support from Dietmembersinthe final stretch.More than50upper house lawmakerswill face reelection next year,and some have yetto decide whom they will vote for.Theyare assessing which candidate would give themthe greatest boostintheir own election prospects.Thecandidatesareexpectedto intensify their appeals to these lawmakers.
