China recently test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the South Pacific, raising concerns among nations in the region. Experts believe that the test served both political and pragmatic purposes. The missile, which carried a dummy warhead, is believed to be China’s newest ICBM, the Dong Feng-41 (DF-41), or an older ICBM, the Dong Feng-31AG (DF-31AG). The DF-41 has a range of 12,000 to 15,000 km (7,500 to 9,500 miles), while the DF-31AG has a shorter range of 7,000 to 11,700 km (4,300 miles to 7,300 miles).
The missile was fired from an undisclosed location on September 25 and traveled approximately 12,000 kilometers (7.456 miles) before landing near French Polynesia. While China called it a routine arrangement and compared it to tests conducted by other countries with long-range missiles like the United States and Russia; this was China’s first long-range missile test into the Pacific since 1980.
Experts speculate that there may be technical reasons for this change in testing location. However, there are also possible political messages behind it. Maritime tracking data showed that two of China’s advanced “space support” ships were present in the Pacific at the time of launch.
The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF), responsible for China’s land-based nuclear and conventional missile forces has been modernized over recent years along with China’s evolving strategy regarding deterrence.
Analysts suggest that Beijing’s test of an ICBM in the Pacific Ocean may carry several political messages aimed at discouraging US involvement in conflicts in Indo-Pacific region as well as sowing doubt among US allies about its credibility as a nuclear umbrella.
China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal and is projected to have more than double its current number of operational warheads by 2030. However,the PLARF still relies heavily on outdated aircraft indicating they have some way to go before achieving a credible nuclear triad.
Overall concerns remain about Beijing’s intentions given their rapid expansion of their nuclear capabilities coupled with open threats towards employing them.