Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have revised their growth forecast for China this year to 4.7 percent after the release of sluggish economic data by the Chinese communist regime. The ruling Chinese Communist Party’s official growth rate target of 5 percent for this year is unlikely to be achieved. Analysts have pointed out that due to the lack of transparency and falsification of data by the CCP, it has become increasingly difficult for Western institutions to accurately assess the real situation of the Chinese economy.
The CCP’s National Bureau of Statistics released data on September 14, showing that industrial output increased by 4.5 percent in August compared to a growth rate of 5.1 percent in July, marking the lowest rate since March. Retail sales, another important economic indicator, grew by 2.1 percent year over year in August, lower than July’s rate of 2.7 percent. Fixed asset investment also reached its lowest rate this year at 3.4 percent.
Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs predicted China’s full-year economic growth rate would reach 4.9 percent while Citigroup forecasted a growth rate of 4.8 percent.
Japanese firm Mizuho Securities also downgraded China’s economic growth forecast for this year from 4.8 percent to 4.7 percent on September 13.
Goldman Sachs further reduced its GDP growth forecast for China in 2025 to be at around 4.3%, while Citigroup lowered its own forecast from an initial estimate of a GDP growth rate at around to because domestic demand remains weak.
Chinese American economist Davy J.Wong stated that international investment banks are revising their forecasts as a precaution against risk due to inaccurate and unclear official data provided by the CCP regarding China’s economy.
There are concerns that China’s real economic situation could be much worse than what is being reported as recent restrictions on information related to land sales, foreign exchange reserves, and bond trading have made it more difficult for Western institutions to gauge accurate information about China’s economy.
Wong explained that Western institutions often view China’s economy through a Western lens rather than understanding its unique socialist structure with Chinese characteristics which makes it challenging for them fully grasp its true state.
