With just 30 days left before Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are ramping up their efforts. Mail-in ballots have been printed and sent out, and early in-person voting has already begun in some states.
Both campaigns have a lot at stake in what has been an unprecedented election. There have been two assassination attempts, a shakeup at the top of the Democratic ticket, and polling that shows both candidates neck-and-neck.
In these final weeks, both campaigns are spending money on advertising in battleground states, hoping to boost voter turnout and secure victory. The observable metrics that could swing the vote include campaign spending, donations, and field office openings.
It remains unclear which campaign has the advantage going into the last four weeks. Political experts believe it could go either way since many voters fall somewhere between Harris and Trump ideologically.
Polling data suggests a close race between the two candidates. While Harris leads by 2.7 percent nationally according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, surveys in battleground states show different results.
Turnout is another crucial factor that will determine the outcome of this election. The 2020 election had record-high turnout at 66 percent of eligible voters, benefiting both Trump and President Joe Biden. In contrast, lower turnout usually favored Republican candidates before Trump’s rise in 2016.
Ad spending is also significant during this final stretch of the campaign. Democrats have reserved $301 million for advertisements compared to Republicans’ $184 million.
The ground game is another important aspect of winning an election. Clinton had more campaign offices than Trump in critical states but still lost in 2016. This year, Trump has opened over 300 offices throughout battleground states with thousands of trained staff members supporting him.
Looking ahead to Election Day itself, there are several factors that could influence voters’ decisions: potential “October surprises,” undecided voters who make up a significant portion of polls in battleground states (5-15%), independent voters affected by information closer to Election Day (around two weeks prior), and undecided voters who traditionally back challenger candidates but may see Harris as an incumbent despite her quasi-incumbency status.
Ultimately, both campaigns should focus on appealing to moderate voters by addressing important issues with reasonable positions that convey competence.