A record number of candidates are expected to participate in the upcoming Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election on September 27. This surge in candidates can be attributed, in part, to the diminishing control that factions have over lawmakers within the party.
It is anticipated that at least six candidates will run for the presidency, surpassing the previous record of five. These individuals are almost certain to secure the minimum requirement of 20 recommendations from LDP lawmakers.
The decline in factional control has led to a shift in campaign dynamics. It is believed that votes from rank-and-file party members will now hold greater significance compared to previous elections.
Takayuki Kobayashi, a former economic security minister, was the first candidate to announce his bid for LDP president on Monday. Other prominent figures such as Shigeru Ishiba, a former LDP Secretary General; Taro Kono, digital minister; Yoshimasa Hayashi, Chief Cabinet Secretary; and Shinjiro Koizumi, former Environment Minister; are expected to formally declare their candidacies soon. Sanae Takaichi, currently serving as economic security minister, is also likely to secure the necessary number of recommendations.
Since 1972, receiving recommendations has been a prerequisite for running in the LDP presidential election. The highest number of candidates previously seen was five during both 2008 and 2012 when the incumbent did not participate.
The number of contenders vying for victory on September 27 is projected to increase further with Toshimitsu Motegi - LDP Secretary General – also capable of securing the required 20 recommendations.
This influx of candidates can be attributed to weakened factional power within the party. Previously influential factions had significant influence over candidate selection and member voting preferences. However, following an funds scandal within LDP ranks most factions were effectively disbanded.
In past elections it was not uncommon for multiple factions to collaborate and pressure certain candidates out of contention in order reduce competition levels.
Some members within LDP hope that this increased participation will raise their party’s profile and garner more media attention which could help them regain public support.
However with each candidate securing at least 20 recommendations it has become increasingly challenging for them gather enough votes from Diet members (parliamentarians) alone needed secure victory.
As a result some observers believe that rank-and-file party members’ votes along with affiliated group members’ votes – which will be adjusted proportionally equalize Diet member’s votes – will ultimately determine who emerges victorious from this race.