Tokyo (Jiji Press)—A recent survey conducted by Jiji Press has revealed that Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership candidates Shigeru Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi are struggling to gain support from LDP lawmakers. Despite their popularity in public opinion polls, both candidates have fallen behind Shinjiro Koizumi and other contenders.
The survey, which was conducted until Sunday, found that Ishiba and Takaichi have only managed to secure support from a few LDP colleagues in addition to the 20 members who nominated each of them. On the other hand, former Environment Minister Koizumi, along with Takayuki Kobayashi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, and Toshimitsu Motegi have each garnered support from around 10 percent of the 367 LDP lawmakers.
Following closely behind are digital transformation minister Taro Kono, while Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato trail even further behind. However, approximately 100 LDP lawmakers have yet to decide whom they will support in the party leadership election on September 27th.
In this election—the largest since the party’s current rules were adopted in 1972—nine candidates are vying for a total of 734 votes: 367 from LDP lawmakers and another 367 from rank-and-file party members and supporters. If no candidate secures a majority of votes, a run-off between the top two candidates will be held.
Kobayashi is receiving strong backing from mid-career and younger lawmakers affiliated with a faction once led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Hayashi enjoys support mainly from members of a faction formerly led by current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Koizumi has garnered widespread support across various factions as well as endorsement from former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. Motegi’s main supporters come from his own faction.
Ishiba is backed by lawmakers affiliated with a faction led by former LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai while Takaichi receives support primarily from conservative party members including those aligned with the Abe faction. Most of Kono’s supporters belong to an Aso-led faction; however, nearly half of its members are backing other leadership candidates.
It is worth noting that only Aso’s intraparty faction has decided to continue existing after several factions disbanded or decided to disband following a high-profile ”slush fund” scandal involving many LDP factions.
Additionally, Jiji Press surveyed senior officials at each of the LDP’s local chapters across Japan’s prefectures. The results showed that Ishiba received support from seven chapter officials while Takaichi received backing from six officials. Koizumi was supported by five officials while Kobayashi and Motegi had two each supporting them; Kamikawa and Kato had one supporter each among chapter officials surveyed.
Chapter officials particularly highlighted Ishiba’s political experience, Takaichi’s policies,and Koizumi’s reformist stance as reasons for their respective endorsements.
Regarding the slush fund scandal itself,some chapter officials believed that no further action was necessary after earlier punishments were handed out this year; others called for reinvestigation or consideration regarding whether involved members should be officially endorsed in elections.
When asked about when they believe the next general election should take place,the majority (29) said it should occur soon after the party leadership election.
