As Japan prepares to address geopolitical tensions with China, the upcoming election for the country’s next prime minister will play a crucial role in determining its future direction, particularly regarding its China policy. The leading candidates for the position are Shinjiro Koizumi, a 43-year-old former environment minister and son of popular former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, and Shigeru Ishiba, a 67-year-old former defense minister. The election on September 27 will decide the leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and subsequently the next prime minister.
According to experts, one of the key issues at stake in this leadership election is whether or not Japan will continue on its current path under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Tsukasa Shibuya from Takushoku University’s Institute of World Studies stated that while Fumio Kishida has taken a firm stance against the Chinese regime in line with other G7 countries’ positions, it remains uncertain if his successor will maintain such policies.
The strategic importance of Japan in terms of regional security was highlighted by Simon O’Connor, a former chair of New Zealand’s Parliamentary Select Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defense and Trade. He emphasized that Japan is an essential area for American military operations due to its location within an island chain that has historically been referenced militarily.
Regarding China-related issues specifically, there is some ambiguity surrounding Koizumi’s position. However, experts believe that regardless of who wins the leadership election, Japan’s overall trend of confronting the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is unlikely to change significantly. Nevertheless, there may be variations in how strongly each candidate approaches this stance.
It is worth noting that revising Article 9 of Japan’s postwar constitution has been supported by LDP members as it contains a no-war clause renouncing military force as a means to settle international disputes. This revision would allow Japan to take on a more active role in defense and regional security against threats from China and North Korea. However, achieving this revision would require both parliamentary supermajority approval and public referendum support.
Although not yet officially revised through these channels, Prime Minister Abe’s administration reinterpreted the constitution to include “collective self-defense,” enabling Japanese military action when an ally faces attack. Notably though undefined beyond the United States at present as an “ally,” this shift indicates a departure from their previously defensive posture towards potential threats.
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