The 2024 Election Could Be Decided by an Overlooked Voting Bloc

Tina DeMedeiros, a 53-year-old resident of Dartmouth, Massachusetts, exemplifies the “Trump-or-bust” type of voters. Having initially supported Democratic candidate Bill Clinton in her early 20s, she became disengaged from politics. However, Donald Trump became an exception for her. She voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 elections but did not participate in the 2018 and 2022 elections. According to DeMedeiros, most of the people she knows also do not vote regularly. She expressed her sentiments, saying, “I don’t really like politicians. But I like Donald Trump. I don’t look at him like a politician.”

Pollster Rich Baris has labeled individuals like DeMedeiros as “Trump-or-bust” voters. These voters are less likely to cast their ballots unless they see the name “Donald J. Trump” on the ballot. This demographic has emerged as a significant factor in recent elections.

The “Trump-or-bust” phenomenon is gaining attention as analysts aim to understand the impact of these voters. In a polarized political landscape, these individuals have become a pivotal segment of the electorate. Their tendency to vote inconsistently poses a challenge for traditional polling and election forecasting models.

Baris’s research has shown that Trump-or-bust voters are an influential force in elections. Their sporadic voting patterns are reshaping the political landscape and disrupting traditional voting trends. These voters’ loyalty to Trump indicates a shift in the political dynamics, which requires a revision of conventional election strategies and approaches.

While the motivations of Trump-or-bust voters vary, their unwavering support for Donald Trump remains consistent. Their disinterest in other political figures poses a unique challenge for both the Republican and Democratic parties. It underscores a need for the parties to reconsider their platforms and messaging to attract and engage this significant segment of the electorate.

DeMedeiros’s perspective reflects the sentiments of many Trump-or-bust voters who view Donald Trump as a unique and transcendent figure in politics. Their allegiance to Trump reflects a broader disillusionment with traditional politicians and a yearning for a non-conventional leader who defies the traditional political establishment.

As the political landscape continues to evolve, the influence of Trump-or-bust voters is likely to shape the trajectory of future elections. Both political parties will need to recalibrate their strategies to effectively engage and mobilize this influential voting bloc. At the same time, analysts and pollsters will need to reevaluate their methodologies to accurately capture and understand the impact of this emerging demographic in the electoral process.


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