According to recent polls conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun, the upcoming presidential election for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to result in a runoff between the top two finishers. The polls surveyed party members, supporters, and Diet members, revealing that nearly 20% of voters were undecided or unwilling to disclose their choice. This group could potentially impact the election scheduled for September 27.
In this election, candidates will compete for a total of 734 votes. Half of these votes are cast by Diet members while the other half are cast by rank-and-file members and party supporters. If no candidate secures a majority, there will be a runoff between the top two finishers. This second round will be voted on by the 367 Diet members, with each of LDP’s prefectural chapters also having one vote each.
The survey conducted among rank-and-file members and party supporters took place in all 47 prefectures over the weekend. A total of 1,500 confirmed voters in the presidential election responded to this survey. When asked about their preferred candidate, former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba received support from 26% of respondents followed closely by economic security minister Sanae Takaichi at 25%. Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi came in third with support from 16% of respondents.
Other candidates such as Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi received support from only 6% of respondents each. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi had support from just 5%, while digital minister Taro Kono had support from only 3%. LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi was chosen by just 2% of respondents and former Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato was supported by only1%.
Extrapolating from these poll results suggests that Ishiba would receive around97 votes from rank-and-file members and party supporters while Takaichi would receive approximately94 votes. Koizumi is projected to receive60 votes.
Another survey focused on voting intentions among LDP Diet members revealed that outof352 outof367members participated.Koizumi received backingfrom45members,followedbyKobayashiwith40,Hayashiwith35,andMotegiwith33.Takaichihad29supporters,Ishibahad26,Konohad24,Kamikawahad23,andKatohad21.Neither chairmanoftheDietchamberswasincludedinthesurvey.Atotalof91LDPDietmembershadnotyetdecidedwhomtovoteforordidnotdisclosetheirintentions.
In terms of overall projected tally for all voters,TakaichiandIshibaweretiedwith123votes,closelyfollowedbyKoizumiwith105votes.BeneaththemwereKobayashiwith62votes,Hayashiwith53votes,Kamikawawith45votes,Motegiwith40votes,Konowith35votes,andKatowith24votes,trailingthetopthreecandidatesbyawidemargin.TheseresultsindicatethatTakaichi,Ishiba,andKoizumireceivedlessthan20%ofthevote,suggestingthatnocandidatewillsecureamajorityinthefirstroundofvotingandtherecouldbea runoff.
