The war between Israel and Hizbollah has entered a new phase, with Israeli officials considering a maximalist approach to ”destroy” the Iran-backed militant group. Despite diplomatic efforts, Middle Eastern states feel resigned and futile in their attempts to end the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Arab leaders believe it is the responsibility of Western powers, particularly the United States, to find a solution. They are cautiously optimistic about Iran’s reluctance to escalate tensions and its conciliatory tone at the UN General Assembly. However, there are concerns about whether Iran’s new president can withstand pressure from hardliners in Tehran.
While Iran has suffered setbacks in its influence campaign and deterrence credibility over the past year, it has managed to maintain cordial relations with countries that were once its adversaries. Arab officials are closely watching as Iran tries to revive nuclear diplomacy, wondering if Tehran will offer assistance in Gaza and Lebanon in exchange for sanctions relief.
Arab states have not become naive about Iran but have decided that accommodating Tehran is preferable to engaging in a regional conflict due to inconsistent Western policies. They see no point in confronting Iran when there is no consensus or collective determination among Western powers and when Israel is viewed as the regional villain.
Arab leaders view Israel as strategically blinkered and politically insensitive. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman emphasized that establishing an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital is a prerequisite for diplomatic relations with Israel.
Lebanon’s fall from grace has also contributed to regional resignation. The country’s failure to enact crucial political and economic reforms, accommodate Hizbollah, and address its dysfunction has driven away Gulf states’ support.
Lebanon was once seen as an important arena for Arab-Iranian competition after emerging from Syrian occupation and Israeli occupation years ago. However, Lebanon’s current situation leaves much room for improvement.
Regional indifference towards Lebanon has prompted countries like France and the United States to intervene by linking financial assistance, presidential elections, regional integration initiatives with a ceasefire between Israel and Hizbollah. While Washington successfully facilitated delineating Lebanon-Israel maritime borders last year despite their enmity, US diplomacy appears ineffective during this crisis.
