Voters in the upcoming House of Representatives election will witness a lack of head-to-head races between ruling and opposition parties. Only 45 out of the 289 single-seat constituencies will see such contests, a significant decrease from the previous election. This indicates that opposition parties have failed to unite against the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has been tainted by allegations of “politics and money.” The outcome of these races will be closely watched.
Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) President Yoshihiko Noda announced that they have officially endorsed 237 candidates for the election. He expressed determination to achieve a change in government, possibly without forming a coalition. In these 45 constituencies, the ruling coalition comprising LDP and Komeito will face off against either CDPJ candidates or candidates jointly fielded by opposition parties.
In the previous election, CDPJ had joined forces with other opposition parties like Japanese Communist Party (JCP) and Democratic Party for the People but ended up losing seats. The LDP mocked this alliance as a ”Constitutional Communist Party.” Learning from this experience, Noda made it clear that CDPJ would not form a coalition with JCP and aimed to attract moderate conservatives who had left LDP. However, this stance faced strong opposition from JCP, leading to an increase in contested constituencies between CDPJ and JCP from 48 to 142.
Each opposition party saw an opportunity in public criticism surrounding politics and money scandals involving LDP factions and actively fielded their own candidates. The Japan Innovation Party indicated its intention not to coordinate with CDPJ while there were unsuccessful attempts within Democratic Party for the People (originating from Democratic Party of Japan) to coordinate with CDPJ due to policy disagreements on energy policy and constitution.
Some within LDP view this situation as advantageous since they believe that votes will be split among different opposition parties. However, recent nationwide opinion surveys show declining approval ratings for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s Cabinet compared to his predecessors’ cabinets.
As campaigning officially begins for the House of Representatives election, all eyes are on how these dynamics play out among ruling and opposition parties.