Thousands of people gathered at the Bayfront Convention Center in Erie, Pennsylvania on September 29 to listen to former President Donald Trump speak. Many more watched his speech on a jumbo display outside the convention center. The county of Erie has historically been a strong indicator of who will win Pennsylvania in presidential races. Since 1980, with the exception of 1988, the county has consistently backed the winner. While it may not be a national bellwether, it has accurately predicted the winner of Pennsylvania since 2008.
In recent years, Erie County’s political landscape has undergone significant changes. In 2016, Trump won the county by shifting its support towards Republicans by 18.5 points. In contrast, President Barack Obama had won the county by large margins in both 2008 and 2012. In the closely contested election of 2020, President Joe Biden carried Erie County by just one percent.
The changing politics can be attributed in part to Erie County’s cultural and demographic background. Located at the northwestern end of Pennsylvania and bordering Lake Erie, upstate New York, and Ohio, it is home to a diverse mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters.
The demographics reflect larger voter distributions in Pennsylvania as a whole. The majority (83 percent) of residents are white working-class individuals with an average household income around $60k per year—a key electorate for both parties.
Since Trump entered politics in 2016, this demographic has trended towards Republicans but still remains crucial for Democrats to maintain their minority share while expanding among suburban white-collar voters and those residing within Erie city itself—two demographics that have favored Democrats recently.
Erie County Democratic Party Chairman Sam Talarico acknowledged that Democrats are increasingly struggling with white working-class voters but noted that suburban areas bordering Erie city are shifting towards Democrats.
Republicans aim to expand their lead among white working-class voters while winning over independents—the most crucial bloc for both parties as they make up approximately one-third (35k) of registered voters in the county.
Both parties recognize that winning over independents will be key to securing victory in this swing county—and ultimately determining who wins Pennsylvania—and potentially even deciding who becomes president.