Early October is being considered as a potential date for the dissolution of the House of Representatives, as the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) presidential election approaches. Former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi stated at a public debate in Tokyo that if he wins the presidential election, he will immediately call for a snap election. The newly elected president will be nominated as prime minister at an extraordinary Diet session on October 1, following the September 27 leadership race. The new president is expected to quickly appoint party executives and select Cabinet members.
The term of lower house members expires in October next year, so the new president will need to decide when to dissolve it. If Koizumi wins, there is speculation within the LDP and Komeito that October 9 could be the earliest possible date for dissolution, with an official campaign period starting on October 15 and an election set for October 27. Other potential dates include an October 22 campaign kickoff for a November 3 election or an October 29 start for a November 10 election.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also reportedly believes that dissolving the lower house should happen early while his party still has momentum under new leadership. In contrast, other presidential candidates have not called for early dissolution, so timing may depend on the outcome of the race.
Former LDP Secretary General Shigeru Ishiba previously mentioned early dissolution but suggested during Saturday’s debate that budget committee meetings are where real exchanges take place. This implies that if he becomes prime minister, Ishiba would participate in budget committee deliberations before dissolving the lower house.
It is worth noting that in 2008 Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda resigned with hopes of achieving a breakthrough through subsequent dissolution but his successor Taro Aso decided against calling an early election. As a result, just before lower house members’ terms expired, there was a change of government after defeating LDP in elections.
while early October seems likely as a potential date for dissolving Japan’s House of Representatives due to upcoming LDP presidential elections and discussions among party members about timing options exist depending on various factors such as who wins and their strategies moving forward.
