An election filled with plot twists is entering its final 60 days as Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remain locked in a dead-heat race. Much is on the line as both campaigns lean into the final two months of a historic election cycle, with a much anticipated Sept. 10 debate on ABC, the beginning of early voting in many states, and Trump’s scheduled sentencing in New York looming in the background.
Both candidates have recently expressed a keen awareness of what’s at stake in the remaining weeks. Harris, speaking in New Hampshire on Sept. 4, reiterated how she sees herself as an underdog against the former president.
“New Hampshire, we have 62 days to go. … I’m going to tell you what you already know. This race is going to be tight until the very end. So please, let’s not pay too much attention to the polls because we are running as the underdog,” Harris said.
The Trump campaign cited statistician and election analyst Nate Silver’s recent model showing Trump with a slight edge over Harris in Electoral College winning odds and suggested that the former president has momentum to win in November.
“Three weeks ago, Democrat’s newly crowned nominee—Kamala Harris—was leading Nate Silver’s Electoral College modeling. The forecast has since inversed in President Trump’s favor,” wrote campaign statement.
While Harris’ numbers increasingly trended upward after she launched her campaign, recent national and battleground state polling suggests that race is a nail-biter as candidates remain neck and neck.
Harris leads Trump by 3.1 percent according to FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average while leading him by 4 percent according to Outward Intelligence and Emerson College polls.
In Michigan CNN/SSRS poll shows her leading by five percent while Glengariff Group poll shows trump up one point.
Harris holds six-point lead according CNN/SSRS Wisconsin poll but trails trump by one percent according Emerson College poll.
Trump regained slight advantage of .3% Arizona polling average after harris climbed ahead early August
In Nevada most polls show harris ahead since mid-august
In Georgia harris leads trump by slight margin
Trump leads North Carolina polls after harris slashed his margins last month
Pennsylvania considered critical battleground state where neither candidate has edge outside statistical margin error
Bill McInturff co-founder Public Opinion Strategies emphasized importance Pennsylvania saying “I think race sort Pennsylvania race” Democrats had ten-point registration advantage over Republicans now it’s four-point eight percent Republicans shifted registration margin half Democratic advantage used be”
McInturff said it would be difficult for harris win voters places like Scranton western Pennsylvania endorsing ban fracking walking position back just year later
Chris Stirewalt called Pennsylvania mother all swing states said state falls middle partisanship among all battlegrounds making most likely swing toward either party
Looking at electoral college if harris loses pennsylvania arizona north carolina still win if she holds onto nevada georgia michigan wisconsin
Trump could lose all battlegrounds besides pennsylvania georgia north carolina still win electoral college
Sept debate critical for both candidates between eleven fifteen percent likely voters six seven battleground states indicated they might change their mind before Election Day
Another potential wild card horizon trumps sentencing Manhattan criminal trial date currently set sept but trumps attorneys urging courts postpone until after election push move case federal court rejected judge alvin Hellerstein sept trump appealed decision