China may seize control of Taiwan’s offshore Kinmen Islands within the next six months, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute. The report warns that Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping sees a “unique opportunity” to carry out a coercion campaign against the Kinmen Islands due to political factors in both Taiwan and the United States.
The researchers note that President Joe Biden is in his lame-duck period, with domestic politics being turbulent and divisive. The ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza have also preoccupied the foreign policy establishment, leaving little appetite for more conflict among the US populace.
Tensions between China and Taiwan have been escalating since Lai Ching-te was elected as Taiwan’s president earlier this year. Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration reported expelling 835 Chinese boats from its waters from January to June 25, prompting concerns about China establishing new norms around Kinmen’s waters.
The researchers argue that neither the US nor Taiwan are likely to respond effectively or escalate tensions if China moves against the Kinmen Islands. They highlight Taiwan’s relative political inexperience under Lai’s administration and frequent battles with opposition parties hindering their agenda.
The report outlines China’s potential sequence of actions to seize Kinmen, including normalizing incursions into restricted waters, boarding Taiwanese ships, flying surveillance drones over military bases, imposing a quarantine zone, establishing no-fly zones, damaging submarine cables connected to Taiwan, and eventually turning Kinmen into a demilitarized zone under Chinese control.
China aims to use media and information warfare to promote narratives of freedom and economic prosperity on Kinmen as an example of its “One Country, Two Systems” scheme it wishes to impose on Taiwan. However, most Taiwanese oppose living under China’s political system.
While there are risks that could derail China’s plan or lead to unwanted conflict escalation if interpreted as an act of war by allies supporting Taiwan, failure by the US to effectively respond would undermine faith in its defensive umbrella among allies like Japan and South Korea.
To prevent future aggression against offshore islands like Kinmen, recommendations include developing a merchant maritime force for self-defense purposes and imposing financial sanctions/trade restrictions against China. The researchers also suggest amending the US’ Taiwan Relations Act for better support of these islands’ resistance against CCP coercion.