The current approach to China began with former President Donald Trump. The Trump administration identified China as a “strategic competitor“ and implemented various policies to address this. These policies included imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, restricting Chinese access to American semiconductor technology, and shifting national security strategy towards China and Russia.
The Biden administration has continued many of these same policies, indicating that Washington’s stance towards China will likely remain hawkish. However, there are also expected to be differences in approach between the two candidates based on their personal beliefs and the individuals they appoint to key positions.
Trump is expected to continue his tough stance on China if he is reelected. Stephen Ezell from the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation think tank believes that Trump will take the pledges in the Republican platform seriously, particularly revoking China’s permanent normal trade relations status due to Beijing’s failure to comply with its commitments as a member of the World Trade Organization.
Decoupling, or separating the US and Chinese economies, was an idea raised by Trump during his final months in office. This approach is supported by Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s former trade representative who is rumored to be a candidate for Secretary of Treasury under a potential second term for Trump.
James Lewis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank believes that decoupling is already happening between the US and China.
In terms of military strategy, Trump focused on modernizing nuclear weapons during his term while emphasizing maintaining peace through military strength. On the other hand, then-Senator Kamala Harris expressed support for cutting defense budgets during a debate in 2020.
Both Trump and Biden agree that the Indo-Pacific region is a priority theater for US interests. However, they may differ in their prioritization between regional conflicts such as Russia-Ukraine/Israel-Hamas versus tensions in South China Sea/Taiwan Strait.
Ivan Kanapathy from advisory firm Beacon Global Strategies suggests that Europe should handle ongoing conflicts with Russia while focusing more on China and North Korea falls under US responsibility.
While Biden has maintained that Indo-Pacific remains a priority theater for US interests, military assistance provided by Washington to Ukraine and Israel has strained defense industry resources resulting in an arms sales backlog worth $20 billion intended for Taiwan’s defense budget.
Regarding Taiwan specifically, Biden has stated multiple times that he would defend Taiwan if Beijing attempted forceful annexation but officials have walked back those statements claiming deliberate vagueness regarding policy actions against such aggression.
Trump played a significant role in forging closer relations with Taiwan during his presidency starting with an unprecedented phone conversation with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen after his election victory in 2016.