Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland Odds
Dolidze Odds: +122
Holland Odds: -145
Over/Under: 2.5 (-200 / +150)
Location: Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah
Fight Time: 10 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN+ PPV
Check out the Roman Dolidze vs. Kevin Holland odds for UFC 307 on Saturday, October 5 with my expert UFC pick and prediction.
For his second consecutive fight, Georgian grappler Roman Dolidze is stepping up on short notice to fill a main-card spot on an Alex Pereira-led pay-per-view fight card. This time he’s had a bit more than a month to prepare for his matchup with Kevin Holland, and he’s fortunately fighting at his natural 185-pound weight class after beating Anthony Smith in the 205-pound light-heavyweight division last time.
Holland has fluctuated between welterweight and middleweight with a submission win over Michal Oleksiejczuk in his return to the heavier division. He will definitely be the smaller athlete this time, which will be a factor with my Dolidze vs. Holland bet at UFC 307.
Billy Ward’s Tale of the Tape
Record:
- Dolidze: 13-3
- Holland: 26-11
Avg. Fight Time:
- Dolidze: 11 minutes and 52 seconds
- Holland:10 minutes and49 seconds
Height:
- Dolidze:6’2″
- Holland :6’3″
Weight (pounds):
-Dolidze :185.5 lbs.
-Holland :185.5 lbs.
Reach (inches):
-Dolidz e76″
-Holland :81″
Stance:
-Doli d zeOrthodox
-Hollan dOrthodox
Date of birth:
-Dol id ze7/15/1988
-Hollan d11/5/1992
Sig Strikes Per Min:
-Dol id ze3 .1
-Hollan d4 .3
SS Accuracy :
-Dol id ze42%
-Hollan d49%
SS Absorbed Per Min :
-Dol id ze3 .37
-Hollan d3 .20
SS Defense :
-Dol id ze50%
-Hollan d50%
Take Down Avg :
-Dol id z e1 .26
-Holla n d0 .84
TD Acc :
-Doli dz e40%
-Holla nd38%
TD Def :
-Doli dz e33%
-Holla nd54%
Submission Avg :
-Doli dz e1 .1
-Holla nd0 .6
I’ve seen some talks of this being a “striker vs.grappler” matchup with former ADCC competitor Dolidze as the grappler.That’s not an entirely unfair characterization,but it also doesn’t tell the full story.Holland is also a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt (under former UFC title challenger Travis Lutter)with an underrated submission game.The public views him more as astriker due to his unwillingness to grapple,not necessarily his inability to.Holland’s past three submission wins came without landinga takedown,and he foolishly let Stephen Thompson stand up after taking him down on two separate occasions during histko loss tothe Wonderman in2022.All of which speaks tomy biggest problemwithKevin Holla n doften ismore interestedin puttingon fun fightsand cashing performance-bonus checks thanheisin winning fights.He’s skilledin all aspectsof MMA,but hedoesn’t always take the obvious pathto success.Onthe plus side,his desiretomixituponthe feetisprobablythecorrectgame planthis timeout against Dol i dz.“The Caucasian” isa high-level no-gi grappler.Whilehe hasn’tpickedup anysubmission winsintheUFC,h often usessubmission threatsto transitiontodominant positionswherehecanfinishfightswith strikes.D o l i dzehasimprovedhisstandupgameinrecentfights too.Heoftenfightssouthpaw,andhelikestoleadwithkicksfromhisrearlegatrangetokeepopponentsuncomfortable.Thedownsideofthatstyleisgivingopponents opportunitiesfortakedowns–but Dol i dzee litegrapplingisa deterrent there.He’llbeataspeeddisadvantageagainst Hollandonstriking,but Dol i dzethrowsthemorepowerfulsinglestrikesstanding.That’sconcerningfor Holla n dw ho’ stakenalotofdamageinhiscareerandwasrockedtwicebyOleksijczukbeforethePolishfighterfollowedhimtothegroundandgothimselfsubmitted.If Dol i dzi s abletohurt Holla n ,“Trailblazer”won’tbeabletobailhimselfoutwitheasysubmission opportunities.That’sabigifofcourse,giventhespeedandlengthedge H ollandwillenjoyonthefeet.D o l izde v s.Ho ll an dpick&predictionAs much as I respectthegrappinggameof Ho ll an dt h ec om binationofskillandsizefrom Do li zdewillbetoomuchforhim–ifthefightgetstothemat.TheUFC hasintentionallymatched Ho ll an dw ith strikersinthemajorityofhisrecentfights,includ ing th eo riginalbookingagainst Chris Curtis.That’snotacoincidence;matchmakersknowthey’llgetamoreentertainingfightthatway.I don’tthink Do li zd ec aresmuchaboutthat,andhewillbelookingt opresshisadvantagehere.I’m not entirely confidenthe’llbeabletolandtakedowns–butwe’realsogettingplus-moneyontheDo li zd eside.YoucouldmakeacaseforDo li zdebyfinish(orinthefinish-onlymarkets)sincehe’ slikelytolosesomeroundsbasedonstrikingdamagebutwillhavemore opportunitiesto finishthingsonthemat.I ’llbetakingaslightsprinkleatthef ormerduetothejuicy+550odds,butmyofficialpickisDo li zdestraightuponthemoneylineat+125viaCaesars.ThePick:D ol izd ez e125(Caesars)
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