At last year’s NATO summit in Lithuania, allies agreed to defer Ukraine’s membership bid, at least temporarily, in favor of loosely defined “security agreements” between Kyiv and individual member-states. But as Kyiv’s battlefield situation deteriorates, the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO—in the not-too-distant future—appears to be back on the table. “NATO is treading an exquisite balance between sustaining Ukrainian defense while seeking to de-escalate the conflict and minimize the risk of direct conflict with Russia,” Andrew Corbett, a lecturer at the Defense Studies Department at King’s College London, told The Epoch Times. “This is, ultimately, incoherent since it simply prolongs Ukraine’s agony,” Corbett said.
Last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented White House officials with a long-awaited “victory plan” for defeating Russia. Details have not been publicly disclosed but Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s top advisor has said that the plan calls for Ukraine’s expedited accession to NATO among other things. According to Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, a Turkish political analyst such a request “does not seem very realistic under current circumstances.” “Even before the war when conditions were more favorable this demand was not realized due to disagreements among NATO member states and uncertainties in Ukrainian politics,” Erol told The Epoch Times.
At a 2008 summit in Bucharest NATO allies agreed—in principle—that Ukraine would eventually join the alliance. But Kyiv didn’t formally apply for membership until late 2022—roughly six months after Russia launched its initial invasion of eastern Ukraine. Two years later Ukraine still hasn’t been invited to join despite full-throated support for Kyiv’s war effort on the part of most NATO members.
In July at a landmark NATO summit held in Washington D.C., the alliance’s 32 current members repeated that “Ukraine’s future is in NATO.” They also stated that they will continue supporting it on its path towards full Euro-Atlantic integration including NATO membership but only when “allies agree and conditions are met.”
NATO’s Brussels-based leadership has made no secret of its wish to see Ukraine join their ranks. After replacing Jens Stoltenberg as NATO chief early this month Mark Rutte Holland’s former prime minister traveled to Kyiv where he stated during a joint press conference with Zelenskyy on Oct 3rd that Ukraine was “closer than ever before” to joining NATO.
However some allies still voice reservations about admitting Ukraine into their ranks including Recep Tayyip Erdogan president of Turkey who recently said that accepting new members requires considering other member states’ stances and added that some don’t want Ukraine as part of their alliance.
Robert Fico prime minister of Slovakia has been more forthright pledging his veto against Kyiv joining while he remains head of government stating it would be good basis for third world war according Euro News report published on Oct 7th.
Fears about escalation derive largely from Article 5 which obliges alliance members come each other defense if any come under external attack so if they admit now some fear they will become participants ongoing conflict with Russia by virtue Article 5.