National Security Expert Predicts ‘Black Swan Event’ in 2024 with Unpredictable High Impact

In a recent CBS News correspondents roundtable, Catherine Herridge, the network’s senior investigative correspondent, expressed a grim prediction for 2024, suggesting the possibility of a ‘Black Swan event’ – a national security crisis with unpredictable high impact. This term refers to an unforeseen event with extreme consequences, popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book “The Black Swan”.

Moderator Margaret Brennan questioned Herridge about her prediction, to which Herridge, an experienced reporter in national security and intelligence, responded with a message of concern for the future, particularly under the Biden regime.

Herridge expressed her apprehension by stating, “Well, mine’s a little dark. I just feel a lot of concern that 2024 may be the year of a black swan event. This is a national security event with high impact that’s very hard to predict.” She highlighted several contributing factors including the enduring heightened threat level, ongoing wars in Israel and Ukraine, as well as internal divisions within the United States, which she believes could create opportunities for adversaries like North Korea, China, and Iran.

Brennan acknowledged the gravity of Herridge’s warning, noting the widespread anxiety that such predictions could cause, especially in Washington, D.C. The conversation then turned to underreported issues, with Brennan asking about topics deserving more media attention.

Herridge passionately advocated for more coverage of issues affecting U.S. servicemembers, particularly those struggling to access services and feeling that their claims have been wrongly denied. She emphasized the need for more reporting and accountability, especially with many servicemembers retiring with complex physical and emotional demands after years of war.

Additionally, Herridge’s prediction has sparked concern and discussion on social media, with a tweet from Face The Nation summarizing her warning and underlining the potential impact of ongoing wars and U.S. division as fertile ground for adversaries like North Korea, China, and Iran to take advantage of.

As Herridge’s prediction continues to generate attention, it raises questions about the potential national security risks in the coming years, and the necessity for a heightened focus on issues affecting U.S. servicemembers. With uncertainty looming, the impact of a potential ‘Black Swan event’ remains a cause for concern and further discussion.


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